Okay, so I nailed the Dems last Thursday with my Iowa predictions, and blew it with the GOP. Not a huge shock.
Things are even clearer on our side this time around, but more confusing than ever on the Republican side. Anyway, here are my predictions for tomorrow’s New Hampshire results:
Democrats: (1) Obama, (2) Clinton, (3) Edwards
Republicans: (1) Romney, (2) McCain, (3) Huckabee
Most polls have shown Barack picked up about 18% nationally since his win in Iowa, and he now leads Hillary by anywhere from 3 to 10% in New Hampshire. My prediction is that his margin of victory is at least ten points. While I think Clinton beats Edwards by a nose, I don’t think it’s unreasonable that he could pull into second place again, since the nebulous issue of “change” is so hot right now (and her rush to embrace this theme has been so haphazard).
Looking ahead, polls already show Barack crushing Hillary in South Carolina. I think he wins big there, goes onto win Nevada, and deals another blow to Clinton when “Uncommitted” gets at least 40% in Michigan on the 15th. Hillary still looks solid in the big Super Duper Tuesday states like California, New Jersey, Florida and New York, but with her campaign running on fumes, I just don’t see how she survives five big upsets and hangs on to win the nomination.
On the Republican side I’m going with Romney simply because he hasn’t lost quite as much ground after Iowa as people expected, and I think Obama will pull too many independents over to the Democratic primary for McCain to win. I think if Barack wins by 12% or more, Romney definitely wins. If Obama wins by 7% or less, McCain takes it among Republicans.
Beyond New Hampshire, it’s either going to come down to Romney and Huckabee, or McCain and Huckabee. Rudy might hang in there for a while, but I think the other losers will drop out before February 5.